This weather event will bring changes to precipitation patterns. The phenomenon may intensify extreme weather events in several regions.
An El Niño climate event is expected to develop between the coming months of May and July, impacting global temperature and precipitation patterns, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) indicated this Friday.
The WMO reported in a statement that "sea surface temperatures are rising rapidly" in the equatorial Pacific, "indicating a likely return of conditions" related to the global climate phenomenon.
"Forecasts indicate a 'near-global dominance of above-normal land surface temperatures' in the coming quarter, in addition to regional variations in precipitation patterns," adds the WMO.
“After a period of neutral conditions at the beginning of the year, climate models are now strongly aligned and there is great confidence in the onset of El Niño, followed by further intensification in the following months,” said the WMO's Climate Forecasting Officer, quoted in the statement.
Wilfran Moufouma Okia points out that, although models indicate it could be "a strong event," the so-called "spring predictability barrier represents a challenge to the certainty of forecasts at this time of year," and that "confidence in forecasts generally improves after April."
Characterized by warming ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, El Niño typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts between nine and twelve months.
“El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), one of the most powerful climate patterns on Earth,” states the WMO, explaining that “they reshape the global climate, influencing rainfall, droughts and extreme weather events in various regions,” so accurate and timely ENSO forecasts are useful for anticipating and responding to risks.
El Niño affects temperature and precipitation patterns in different regions and generally has a warming effect on the global climate, being "typically associated with increased rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa, and Central Asia, and with drought in Australia, Indonesia, and parts of South Asia."
"During the Northern Hemisphere summer, the warm waters of El Niño can fuel hurricanes in the central/eastern Pacific, while hindering the formation of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin," according to the WMO.
The United Nations meteorological agency notes, however, that "each El Niño event is unique in terms of its evolution, spatial pattern and impacts."
The WMO states that, although there is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of events, "it can amplify the associated impacts," given that "a warmer ocean and atmosphere increase the availability of energy and moisture for extreme weather events, such as heat waves and heavy rainfall."
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